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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 31 March 2014

Pre-market

ITT Investment group



Last closure

On Friday, March 28, trades in USA have come to the end with growth, as consumer shares rebounded amid data showing household purchases rose the most in three months. Consumer confidence declined in March to the lowest level in four months, a sign U.S. households will be slow to increase their spending. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of sentiment fell to 80 from 81.6 in February. The median projection called for 80.5 after a preliminary March reading of 79.9. Another report showed consumer spending in February increased the most in three months as incomes picked up. Household purchases advanced 0.3% after a 0.2% gain. Incomes also rose 0.3%. Shorter-term borrowing costs rose after Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said the central bank will probably raise interest rates in the second half of next year. Policy maker have trimmed bond purchases at each of the past three meetings. On the day’s result, index Dow Jones rose by 0.36%, S&P has increased by 0.46%, Nasdaq grew by 0.11%.
European stock exchanges closed with growth of main indexes, as a measure of euro-area economic confidence rose in March more than forecast and Italian banks rallied following a government-debt sale. Intesa Sanpaolo SpA added 3.5% as it forecast dividend payouts of about 10 billion euros ($13.7 billion) through 2017. Pirelli & C. SpA increased 3.2% after reporting 2013 earnings that surpassed analysts’ predictions. A gauge of economic confidence in the euro area rose to 102.4 in March from 101.2 a month earlier, beating analyst forecasts for a rise to 101.4. Separate data showed a measure of the region’s industrial confidence stood at minus 3.3 this month, compared with estimates for minus 3.5. French consumer spending in February rose only slightly, disappointing expectations. Consumer spending rose 0.1% in February from January,. Economists had expected a strong 0.7% rebound after a weak performance in January. The UK's economy grew by 1.7% last year, official figures show, less than the previous estimate of 1.8%. It is the second time the estimate for GDP growth in 2013 has been cut, after an initial estimate of 1.9%. On the day’s result, British FTSE rose by 0.41%, CAC 40 (France) grew by 0.74%, DAX (Germany) has increased by 1.44%.
Aprils’ contractual price on Brent oil, grew by $0.24 to $108.07 per barrel.

In Ukraine
Trades on the Ukrainian stock exchange opened on neutral territory, day passed with negative dynamics. Value of the UX index has declined by 1.29% to 992.41. Share trades capacity on the application market was equal to UAH 11.6 million. Trades capacity on the derivatives market was equal to UAH 2.5 million. Total trades capacity for yesterday — UAH 30.6 million.
From ten shares of an index basket, three have risen. Leaders of growth were shares of Ukrsotsbank (+1.74%). Worse than market looked shares of Motor Raiffeisen Bank Aval (-2.93%) and Motor Sich (-2.87%). Ukraine expects the first disbursement of the International Monetary Fund in the amount of $3 billion. Ukraine may get USD 27 billion in financial aid for two years. The IMF is ready to provide USD 14-18 billion of this amount. The first tranche is expected in April. The state budget deficit was cut by UAH 3 billion to UAH 68.6 billion. Revenues of the state budget were reduced by UAH 22.4 billion to UAH 372.9 billion. Expenses and allocation of credits to the state budget were cut by UAH 26.3 billion to UAH 444.9 billion.

Premarket
External background at the opening is positive. Japan's industrial production dropped for the first time in three months in February by a seasonally adjusted 2.3%. The index of output at factories and mines stood at 101.5 against the base of 100 for 2010. Germany's retail sales grew unexpectedly in February from the prior month. Retail sales advanced by real 1.3% from January. This was the second consecutive rise in retail turnover. Sales were forecast to fall 0.5% in February after rising 1.7% in January.
The Asian indexes are growing today. Nikkei rose by 0.90%, Hong Kong Hang Seng increasing by 0.06%.
Futures on American indexes are growing today from 0.34% to 0.38%.
Russian indexes as of 10:00 a.m. are rising — RTS increasing by 0.50%, MICEX growing by 0.25%.

Our expectations
We expect opening of the Ukrainian market by growth.
In Europe will be published Consumer Price Index in the E.U. (12:00 a.m.).
In the U.S. will be published Chicago PMI (4:45 p.m.) and data Dallas Fed general business activity (5:30 p.m.).
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen speech to community reinvestment conference in Chicago will start at 4:55 p.m.


ITT Investment group

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