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Monday, 5 September 2016

Eavex Ukraine Market Monitor: Sept 5

Eavex Capital
Kyiv-listed stocks gained across the board last week thanks to both technical and fundamental drivers. First of all, a new ceasefire took effect in Eastern Ukraine on Sept 1, which represents the third consecutive September ceasefire since the Donbass conflict broke out in 2014. Second, the IMF said that a meeting of its Executive Board on the program with Ukraine has been scheduled for this month. The IMF statement came out after Ukraine’s government finally launched electronic declaration for officials’ income and assets, which is viewed as one of the key elements in fighting corruption in the country. Meanwhile, among technical factors, we can mention a stock price adjustment to the hryvnia’s recent 7% decline against the major currencies. The UX index rose 4.2% to close at 724 points. The gauge’s local maximum is 730 points reached in early July. CentrEnergo (CEEN) continued to be the best-performing blue chip, surging 9.0% last week to USD 9.05 as news that South African coal has started to fill the group’s inventories helped to ease fears that the power generator might face fuel shortages in the winter season. Motor Sich (MSICH) added 5.5% to UAH 1836, which we view as a rebound from the strong support level of UAH 1700 which the stock tested in last days of August. Top financial name Raiffeisen Aval (BAVL) advanced 1.8% to 10.64 kopecks per share. London-listed Ferrexpo (FXPO) fell 3.3% to GBp 66.25 after several global investment banks tipped iron ore prices to retreat from recent elevated levels over the rest of 2016 and 2017, as supply outpaces demand. MHP (MHPC) edged down 1.1% to USD 9.40. In Warsaw trading, it was a bright week for Donbass-based Agroton (AGT). The stock leapt by 40% to PLN 3.41 as the company returned to profit in 1H16. On the interbank market, hryvnia showed additional seasonal weakness despite the positive IMF announcement, falling 4.5% against the dollar to close at 26.60 UAH/USD on Friday (Aug 26). The NBU intervened on the market, selling USD 80mn from its reserves to support the domestic currency. On the cash market, the dollar sell rate ended the week at 26.50 UAH/USD.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS
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Another September, Another Donbass Ceasefire

STOCKS IN THE NEWS
- CentrEnergo Receives 72,000 tonnes of Coal from South Africa
- Agroton Doubles EBITDA to USD 9.2mn in 1H16
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Avangard’s Revenue Slumps 47% YoY to USD 65mn in 1H16


full report

Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact our office in Kyiv at 380-44-590-5454, or by email:

Alexander Klymchuk, Head of Sales, [email protected]
Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, [email protected]



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