Kyiv-listed equities expanded their 2018 bull momentum as traders increased their long positions in the most liquid stocks. Newly-released macroeconomic data supported positive sentiments, with the National Bank unveiling preliminary estimates that Ukraine’s GDP grew by 2.1% in full-year 2017. The NBU said that the cutoff of trade with the pro-Russian separatist-occupied Donbass territories took 0.9p.p. away from the country’s economic growth for the year. One moderately negative sign is that 4Q17 GDP growth came in at 1.5% YoY, slowing from levels above 2% in the other quarters. The NBU raised its forecast for GDP growth for 2018 to 3.4% from 3.2%, while worsening the forecast for 2019 to 2.9% from 3.5%.
The UX index gained a solid 3.7% to close at 1491 points. UkrNafta (UNAF) once again demonstrated elevated volatility, adding 3.7% to UAH 123 per share. CentrEnergo (CEEN) found its way to UAH 15.80 after climbing 5.3% for the week, and Raiffeisen Bank Aval (BAVL) managed to break through the 30 kopeck level, finishing at 30.10 kopecks (+3.4%).
London-listed MHP (MHPC) saw a substantial correction of 2.4% to USD 14.00 following its big gains since the start of this year and some disappointing news that the company decided to abandon plans to acquire Polish meat processing company Exdrob. The potential acquisition would have increased MHP’s presence on European market. Regal Petroleum (RPT), the private natural gas E&P company with assets in Ukraine, jumped 45% to GBp 23.70 per share after a report that the company’s extraction volumes rose by 65% in 2017.
Warsaw-listed Kernel (KER) shed 4.5% to PLN 50.60 while Agroton (AGT) picked up 3.5% to PLN 4.75.
The hryvnia was surprisingly firm last week, regaining 2.4% against the dollar to close at 27.85 UAH/USD as fears of a near-term sharp hryvnia devaluation without a loan tranche from the IMF faded away for the moment. However, the lack of IMF cooperation is likely to remain in focus in the months ahead.
POLITICS AND ECONOMICS
- Top Russian Spies Make Unannounced Visit to Washington
- NBU: BoP Surplus Doubled to USD 2.6bn in 2017
- Ukraine’s Public Debt Rises 8% YoY to USD 76bn (80% of GDP) in 2017
full report
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