The National Bank of Ukraine has revised its forecast for the country’s economic growth this year from 0.3% to 2.0%. As a result, the nominal GDP could reach USD 160bn, compared to the pre-war level of USD 200bn. However, the rapid recovery of the economy may be hindered by the persistence of high security risks, which dampen investment and consumer sentiment, logistical constraints on exports, and weak rates of return for forced migrants from abroad. On the other hand, the increase in international aid volumes will flow into the real sector through the budget, supporting business activity in the country. Nevertheless, due to significant defense spending and a limited resource base due to the consequences of the war, the national budget deficit will expand to 26% of GDP in 2023.
The Ukrainian stock market continues to experience very low trading volumes. However, certain market players are “pushing up” the quotes of individual stocks in hopes of corporate events that would give them the right to offer shares for buyback by the issuer. This is the situation with the quotes of DonbasEnergo (DOEN), which soared by 40% to UAH 34.4 per share last week. A similar maneuver is also evident with the securities of Kryukiv Wagon Plant (KVBZ), which rose nearly 20% to UAH 24.4. Conversely, there was a 10% drop in the indicative price of CentrEnergo’s shares to UAH 4.0 after the company published an agenda to its shareholders meeting that did not include any provisions giving the right to offer shares for buyback.
Most stocks of Ukrainian agro companies traded on foreign exchanges showed growth over the past week. Astarta (AST) were again among the leaders, adding 11% in price to PLN 33.9 per share. Since the beginning of the year, the market capitalization of Astarta has already risen by 66% to USD 204m. Meanwhile, shares of MHP had a moderate increase of 0.9% to USD 3.46 (a 7.7% decrease since the beginning of the year).
POLITICS AND ECONOMICS
- Ukraine’s Public Debt Reaches USD 120bn while Foreign Reserves Standing at USD 36bn
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