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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 14 October 2024

Ukraine Weekly Market Monitor

Eavex Capital

On the Warsaw Stock Exchange, Ukrainian agro companies stocks saw a decline. Kernel (KER) shares dropped by 1.9% to PLN 12.7 following reports that some of the company’s assets at the port of Chornomorsk were damaged in recent russian drone attacks.

The IMC stock suffered a 5% decline to PLN 10.4 (MCap of USD 88mn) and Milkiland (MLK) slipped by 11% to PLN 1.1 (MCap of USD 9mn).

In London trading, iron ore mine Ferrexpo (FXPO) shed by 1.4% to GBp 44.7 (MCap of USD 350mn) as the company reported a 16% QoQ decrease in production in 3Q2024, which was a result of electricity supply disruptions in the country as russia continued to attack Ukrainian critical infrastructure.

In the interbank currency market, the hryvnia maintained relative stability last week, supported by the National Bank’s efforts to balance supply and demand. The regulator sold USD 877mn from the FX reserves over the past week, USD 150mn more than the previous week.

Ukraine’s foreign exchange reserves decreased by 8.1% in September, totaling USD 38.9bn. The National Bank’s interventions in the currency market amounted to USD 3.2bn during the month.

The increasing trend of NBU interventions may point to fundamental pressures on the hryvnia. As such, the forecast of a devaluation to 43.50 UAH/USD over the coming months remains the baseline scenario.

In the russian’s war against Ukraine developments, Ukrainian officials have been urging Kyiv’s allies for months to let Ukraine fire Western missiles, including long-range US ATACMS and British Storm Shadows, deep into russia to limit moscow’s ability to launch attacks.

With Ukraine losing key towns to gradually advancing russian forces in the country’s east, the war is entering one of the most dangerous phases to date.

POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

- Stoltenberg Implies Ukraine Could Trade Territory for Security; Rammstein Meeting Delayed Until after US Vote

- September Inflation in Ukraine Rises to 8.6% YoY Amid Economic Strain

full report


Eavex Capital welcomes any questions or comments you may have regarding our research products.
Please contact us by email:

Dmitry Churin, Head of Research, [email protected]



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