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Analytics and Market news

Thursday, 7 July 2011

EUR-USD exchange rate affects stock markets dynamics

IC IFG CAPITAL, Alexey Sidorov

On Wednesday the UX index kept dropping, continuing its tendency started on the beginning on the week. It is worth noticing the proximity of prices on the trade opening and closing during the recent days and the decreased trade volumes. This is a sign of possible price consolidation in the nearest future and weakness of middle-term descending movements. The quotations of Ukraine were affected by the descending dynamics of European and Russian markets, caused by the interest rates increase in China and Portuguese credit rating decrease.

Current dynamics of EUR-USD rate demonstrate consolidation. Also, upward-pointed oil prices mean that yesterday’s negative is played back and morning upward leap is the most possible contemplation.

The results of the USA trade session also support to such scenery. Despite the forecasts concerning banking, financial and insurance spheres worsening and weak statistics, the bulls managed to prevail.

So, American investors ignored European and Asian sentiments worsening and concentrated on the expected rate increase by the Central Bank and the information from Labor Market.

In case of rate increase and improvement of the labor situation, American market may achieve the powerful bullish sign, providing ascending motion in the middle-term contemplation.

By Alexey Sidorov, analyst of IFG CAPITAL, the external background on the Ukrainian stock market opening may be specified as positive.

Asian stock indices majorly decrease. Chinese SSEC, Japanese Nikkei decrease by 0,25 % ,0,11 % respectively. Korean KOSPI increased by 0,45%.

Russian RTS index opened the day on the positive territory,

Following substantial statistical data will be published today:

14:45 Euro-zone interest rate

15:15 Employment corrections in non-agricultural sphere (the USA)

15:30 Quantity of unemployment applications (the USA)

The Futures for UX Index 6.11. Technical analysis.

On the 4-houred timeframe the price is placed below the Parabolic indicator. Stochastic and RSI keep signs to buy. The trend is lateral.

On the quarter timeframe the price placed below the Parabolic indicator. Oscillators show the dynamics close to neutral. The trend is descending.

Analytical Department of IC IFG CAPITAL forecasts Index and Futures increase by the results of the first half of trading session. Further changes in stock indices dynamics depends on the published information from the USA.



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