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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 18 July 2011

Nothing optimistic from banking stress-tests

IC IFG CAPITAL, Alexey Sidorov

Native stock indices closed the week with a decrease within the ambiguous signs from the USA and pessimistic moods in Europe. The UX index continues with the lateral trend. European and American indices did not show the new records as well. American political intrigue with the governmental debt limit increase prevents middle-term investors from holding their positions.

Results of banking stress-tests in the EU majorly did not meet expectations, but considering the prolonged decrease of EUR-USD exchange rate, the market does not believe to the achieved data.

The test was failed by 8 banks through 90. Among them 5 Spanish, 2 Greece and 1 Austrian bank. 16 other European banks could hardly go through this test: the adequacy level of their base capital under the most pessimistic conditions reaches from 5% to 6%.

Analysts expected 5-15 banks to not overcome the European banking stress-test.

Due to low relevance of published statistics and corporative reports investors will apparently keep paying attention to the signs from markets of currency and raw today, where the situation is negative.

The external background on the Ukrainian stock market opening is estimated as negative. On 16-00 the information of net flow of foreign assets to the USA will be published today. It may affect quotations significantly.

Asian stock indices majorly decrease. Chinese SSEC, Korean KOSPI decreased by 0,17%, 0,69% respectively. Japanese Nikkei increased by 0,39%.

Russian RTS index started the day in red zone.

The Futures for UX Index 6.11. Technical analysis.

On the 4-houred timeframe the price is placed above the Parabolic indicator. Oscillators demonstrate the dynamics close to neutral. The trend is lateral.

On the quarter timeframe the price placed below the Parabolic indicator. Oscillators do not give the univocal signs. The trend is bearish.

Analytical Department of IC IFG CAPITAL forecasts Index and Futures decrease, if Index is fixed on the negative territory in the first half of the day.



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