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Analytics and Market news

Wednesday, 27 July 2011

The threat of the USA default is growing

IC IFG CAPITAL, Alexey Sidorov

On Tuesday domestic stock indices could not keep on the positive territory under the pressure of negative from European and American markets.

Nevertheless, some liquid papers (Motor Sich, Stakhanovsk Carriages) managed to show the growth after publication of positive corporate reports.

European indices showed different dynamics - DAX (+0,07 %), FTSE (+0,08 %), CAC (-0,66 %). Additional pressure was shown by weak consumer climate data in Germany and different corporate reports.

Net profits of BP Plc (the second largest oil company in Europe) totaled $5,6 billion in the 2nd quarter, against $5,9 billion expected.

The net profit of Swiss largest bank UBS AG decreased by 39% - to CHF 1,02 billion ($1,27 billion) in April-June 2011 against CHF 2,01 billion the same period 2010. Analytical consensus-forecast expected the figure to be CHF 1,29 billion.

BG Group Plc, the third largest oil producing company in Great Britain, doubled its profit in the 2nd quarter due to price for energy carriers increase and producing volume increase.

Fiat trading profit in April-June increased to EUR 525 million in comparison with EUR 307 million the same period previous year. Analysts expected the figure to be around EUR 494 million.

The USA investors keep playing the possibility of sovereign credit ratings decrease. The decision, which may let the country to settle its debts in due time, is not taken because of political crisis. Pessimism is worsened with the claims of politicians.

The White House threatened to veto the bill, which is considered by the House of Commons and was proposed by Republicans.

Voting on the bill will be held today. It proposes to increase the governmental debt limit by $1 trillion, in the meantime decreasing federal expenses by $1,2 trillion.

Different statistics and corporate reports did not provide the substantial support to quotations.

The report of American company Amazon.com Inc. published after American trade close cannot be estimated as positive. The net profits in the 2nd quarter 2010 decreased by 8% - to $191 million against $207 million in the same period 2010. Trade volumes of the company increased by 51% and totaled $9,91 billion.

There was negative external background on the opening. EUR-USD exchange rate keeps growing, speaking for the possibility of the USA default increase, estimated by markets.

Asian stock indices are traded with different dynamics. Chinese SSEC, Korean KOSPI increased by 0,85 %  0,26 % respectively. Japanese Nikkei decreased by 0,50%.

KOSPI kept in the green zone despite the publication of information of economic growth slowdown. South Korean GDP increased by 0,8% in the 2nd quarter in comparison with the previous 3 months. Real GDP growth substantially slowed in the 2nd quarter, if compare with an increase by 1,3% in the first three months 2011. The figure reached 3,4% in the same period 2010.

The government of South Korea decreased the growth forecast to 4,5%, against the previously expected 5%.

Russian RTS index stepped to the red zone.

Today on 15:30 we will see published the substantial information from the USA concerning orders for durables.

The Futures for UX Index 6.11. Technical analysis.

On the 4-houred timeframe the price is placed above the Parabolic indicator. Oscillators show the dynamics close to neutral. The trend is lateral.

On the quarter timeframe the price placed below the Parabolic indicator. Stochastic and RSI give the sign to buy. MACD keeps the sign to sell. The trend is bearish.

Analytical department of IC IFG CAPITAL forecasts index and futures decrease by the end of trade session, within the negative escalation before the voting in the USA Congress.



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