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Analytics and Market news

Thursday, 4 August 2011

QE-3 ghost wanders through markets

IC IFG CAPITAL, Alexey Sidorov

On Wednesday the majority of domestic shares suffered substantial losses. Shares of Centerenergo were worse than market under the pressure of reselling by large player. All the shares of UX index box closed the day on the negative territory.

Trade volume on the market of applications significantly grew, which is the sign of bearish moods improvement. The pessimism from American stock market was the main decreasing driver, empowered by the rapid worsening of macro-economical indices, started from the GDP shocked information published in the end of the previous week.

European indices decreased too due to weak corporate reports. Very strong are the fears concerning banking sector, which may suffer record losses as a result of “voluntary reconstruction” of problem countries debts. Societe Generale SA the second largest French bank is in the center of attention, with its net profits decreased by 31% due to Greece bonds discarding.

The USA indices stepped to the green zone in the second half of the day within the information of a probable implementation of the next program of QE-3 governmental bonds redemption.

Brent oil quotation dynamics is unambiguously descending, herewith Russian stock market opened with a growth after great fall yesterday.

The external background on the opening is estimated as neutral.

Asian stock indices demonstrate majorly growing dynamics.

Chinese SSEC, Japanese Nikkei increased by 0,13%, 0,23 % respectively. Korean KOSPI lost 2,31%. Bulls were supported by the currency intervention by the Bank of Japan objected to contain the rapid growth of national currency. Herewith the net investments of non-residents to the Japanese shares decreased by JPY 50,8 billion during the past week, the previous change was JPY +2,3 billion.

Today we will see following substantial statistics published:

13:00 Manufacture orders of Germany

15:30 Unemployment applications (the USA)

It is also worth to note the announcement of European Central Bank interest rate changes, published on 14:45.

The Futures for UX Index 6.11. Technical analysis.

On the 4-houred timeframe the price placed below the Parabolic indicator. Oscillators do not give the univocal signs. The trend is lateral.

On the quarter timeframe the price placed below the Parabolic indicator. Oscillators are in the zone of reselling. The trend is bearish.

Analytical department of IC IFG CAPITAL forecasts index and futures decrease by the end of trade session, if UXI does not fix itself at the level higher than 2280 points in the first half of the day.



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