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Analytics and Market news

Tuesday, 30 August 2011

IMF took investors back to reality

IC IFG CAPITAL, Alexey Sidorov

In the beginning of the week domestic markets shared European and American optimism with an advancing growth. Upward motions were not supported by high trade volume; that is why we cannot talk of change of the trend yet. Ascending trend on the American market was supported by the publication of ambiguous statistics and downgrading of the USA economy growth rating to 1,6% this year from the previous estimation of 2,5% made 2 months earlier. The forecast for the year 2012 was downgraded too – from 2,7% to 2,0%.

Despite this fact indices kept moving upwards during the trade session. Decrease of forecasted losses of insurers after Irene hurricane to $2,6 billion was the positive news. The figure was previously estimated near $14 billion.

Asian investors play back the result achieved by the USA despite the weak Japanese and South Korean statistics. Chinese SSEC, Japanese Nikkei, Korean KOSPI increased by 0,09 %, 1,16 %, 0,78 % respectively. Japanese retailing sales increased by 0,7% in July, against 1% expected. The previous change was +1,1%. Unemployment level in July totaled 4,7%, against 4,6% expected and previous figure of 4,6%. South Korean business climate index totaled 80 points in September against the previous figure of 90 points.

Russian RTS index opened the day with growth, though stepped in the red zone later.

EUR-USD exchange rate pointed down.

An external background on the opening is estimated as negative due to the growth of correction possibility on developed markets.

Today on 17:00 the USA will publish the substantial information of Consumer Sentiment Index (Сonference Board).

The Futures for UX Index 6.11. Technical analysis.

On the 4-houred timeframe the price is below the Parabolic indicator. Stochastic pointed upwards at its minimal value. The trend is bearish.

On the quarter timeframe the price placed above the Parabolic indicator. Oscillators strive to their maximal values. Purchasing signs dominate. The trend is bullish.

Analytical department of IC IFG CAPITAL forecasts index and futures decrease by the end of trade session.



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