On Thursday 08.09.2011 domestic stock indices
showed the lateral trend in wide range. Participants played the expectations
from the Chairman and President of the USA. Weak information from the USA labor
market forwarded American, European and Ukrainian indices to the red zone. The
majority of shares of UX index basket showed the descending motions.
In general, macro-economical situation in
Europe and the USA worsened. ECB decreased the forecast on GDP growth for
2011-2012 by 0,1-0,5 % and 0,2-0,6% respectively. Jean-Claude Triche did not mention
the program of economic stimulation. Growth forecast for the USA economy in 3rd
quarter was downgraded by OECD analytics to 1,1% from previously expected 2,9%
- in 4th quarter from 3% to 0,4%. German economy, by the estimation
of OECD, will increase by 2,6% in July-September, and will decrease by 1,4% in
the last three months 2011.
Results of the USA trade session will cause the
determinative effect to the stock markets today, indices grew losses there. Ben
Bernanke did not explain the situation with the next QE. Barack Obama told the
Congress of his plan of struggling with unemployment. The USA budget shall lose
$447 billion to realize this document.
This event does not give rise for enthusiasm
yet, because no one knows the structure of document to be approved by the
Congress.
European quotations will be affected by
negative information of Greece GDP, which decreased in its real form by 7,3% in
the 2nd quarter 2011 against the 2nd quarter 2010. By
preliminary information, Greece economy decreased by 6,9% by the results of the
2nd quarter 2011.
Asian stock indices decrease after pessimistic
macro-economical information of the region receipt. Chinese SSEC, Japanese
Nikkei, Korean KOSPI lost by 0,13 %, 0,63 %, 1,82 % respectively.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China, which is
the main inflation indicator in the country, increased in August by 6,2% in
annual estimation, which is lower than was forecasted. CPR government
previously marked 4% as a critical limit for inflation growth this year. But,
despite all the efforts of the government, this index much higher than the
limit. Expenses for construction and industrial manufacture decreased more than
expected. Japanese GDP in real form decreased by 0,5% in 2nd quarter
2011 against the 1st quarter 2011. By preliminary information the
GDP of the country decreased by 0,3% in the period from April to June.
Russian RTS index opened the day with a
substantial decrease.
Negative external
background formed on the opening.
The Futures for UX –
UX-9.11. Technical analysis.
On the 4-houred timeframe the price
placed below the Parabolic indicator. Oscillators do not give univocal signs. The
trend is bearish.
On the quarter timeframe the price
placed above the Parabolic indicator. Oscillators formed the sign to buy. The
trend is lateral.
Analytical
department of IC IFG CAPITAL forecasts index and futures decrease by the end of
trade session.
