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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 19 September 2011

Optimism appeared to be premature

IC IFG CAPITAL, Alexey Sidorov

Ukrainian stock market closed the week with a decrease with low trade volumes expecting for making important decisions from Europe and the USA.Contrariwise, close approach of EU Finance Ministers strengthened bullish positions in the USA and Europe. Presumably, players projected the last days optimism caused by verbal interventions of President of France and German Chancellor and providing European banks with additional liquidity to the result of expected meeting.The USA stock indices grew, despite the different statistics.We may make several conclusions by the result of the meeting:

  • Opportunities of new stimulating measures to support the united economy are rejected in EU.
  • Specific information of EFSF enlargement is absent.
  • Propositions to make the recapitalization of European banks did not get the support too.

Probably, such a low ratio is caused by political item strengthening in negotiations. We remind you that CDU, the ruling party in Germany, rapidly loses its positions due to German aiding to problem countries. By the result of exit polls, CDU loses these elections to the Berlin Parliament in favor of Social Democratic Party. And the Free Democratic Party, partners of Angela Merkel could not overcome the barrier of 5%. This year Chancellor’s party has already lost the elections in 6 federal lands.Politicization of aiding PIIGS countries issue will significantly harden the compromise reaching.EUR-USD exchange rate reacted to the meeting results with a fastening of decreasing motions.Asian stock indices are in the negative territory. Chinese SSEC, Korean KOSPI lost by 1,38%. 1,04%. The additional pressure to the quotations of Korean issuers’ shares is given by the kindling mortgaging crisis. By the demand of authorities were closed seven saving banks. Banks appeared to be in complicated situations due to bad debts on realty mortgage.Russian RTS index opened the day with a great drop.

It was negative external background on the opening.The Futures for UX – UX-12.11. Technical analysis.On the 4-houred timeframe the price placed above the Parabolic indicator. Oscillators do not give the univocal signs. The trend is lateral.On the quarter timeframe the price placed above the Parabolic indicator. Stochastic and RSI are close to their maximum values. The trend is lateral.

Analytical department of IC IFG CAPITAL forecasts index and futures decrease by the end of trade session.



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