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Analytics and Market news

Friday, 14 October 2011

Debt problems of Italy come to the topside

IC IFG CAPITAL, Alexey Sidorov

On Thursday 13.10.11 Ukrainian stock indicators turned back following European indices within the threats of negative consequences to the economy after increasing the part of debt amortization of Greece sovereign debts by European banks.

Worsening of outlook for the second largest by capitalization retailer of French trade world, Carrefour and report of General Customs Administration of China, which showed substantial slowdown of export growth accelerated quotations fall in Europe.

The USA affected by European pessimism showed quotations decrease too despite favorable data from labor market, information of the USA trade balance and good financial results of J.P.Morgan Chase. IT-sector looked better than market within the expectations of Google reports (Nasdaq +0,60%).

As a result, the most popular search engine did not disappoint investors. The net profit of the company in 3rd quarter increased by 26% - from $2,17 billion or $6,72 per share a year ago to $2,73 billion or $8,33 per share. It earned $9,72 per share excluding certain items within average outlooks about $8,76 per share. Sales in considered period increased to $7,51 billion against $7,23 expected.

By analyst of IC IFG CAPITAL Alexey Sidorov, today shares of European issuers are still under the pressure. This would be furthered by sharpening of political problems in Italy connected to the need of budget confirmation for the next year. The budget must consider great expenses reducing. Spanish credit rating downgrading is a strong bearish sign too.

There are still discordances in Rome, and Berlusconi is ready to the vote of censure.

S&P agency downgraded credit rating of Spin for the third time during last three years. Rating of the country was downgraded by one step – to AA- with a negative outlook.

Investors could be bore up by the news of confirmation of Slovakia’s Parliament of EFSF enlargement, which opened the road to the using of this mechanism of help to financial countries and banks.

But after the range of critical comments, market participants doubt that the money of fund will be sufficient for long time.

Following substantial statistics will be published today:

  • 15:30 Retailing sales index (the USA)
  • 15:30 Import prices index (the USA)
  • 15:30 Retailing sales (the USA)
  • 16:55 Michigan University Consumer Sentiment Index (the USA)

Asian indices majorly decrease. Chinese SSEC, Japanese Nikkei lost by 1,15%, 0,87% respectively. Korean KOSPI increased 0,68%. Pressure to the Chinese shares keep showing trading struggle with the USA. Capital outflow is still taking place on Japanese market. Net investments of non-residents to Japanese shares decreased by JPY 59 billion, against previous change - JPY 169,3 billion.

Russian RTS index opened the day with a growth following oil prices.

Negative external background was formed on the opening.

The Futures for UX – UX-12.11. Technical analysis.

On the 4-houred timeframe the price is below the Parabolic indicator. Oscillators do not give the univocal signs. The trend is bearish.

On the quarter timeframe the price placed below the Parabolic indicator. Stochastic keeps the sign to purchase. The trend is bearish.

Analytical department of IC IFG CAPITAL forecasts Futures and Index decrease by the end of trade session, if index breaks the resistance level of 1300 points.



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