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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 17 October 2011

Little optimism from Paris

IC IFG CAPITAL, Alexey Sidorov

Ukrainian stock indicators closed the week with a growth within the expectations of results of the meeting of G20 countries Financial Ministers and bullish signs from the USA caused by positive domination in statistics and corporate reports. All shares of UX index basket were traded on the positive territory. Trade volume on the market of applications was record low.

Quotations were growing on European and American stocks.

The stream-lined communiqué, where G-20 members “specified support measures for global economy and financial system” was taken by the results of Paris meeting. Nevertheless, it is worth to admit following moments. “The twenty” reached progress in concerted plan of actions, which will be included to the agenda of forthcoming summit of G20 countries’ members in Cannes. Experts do not hope that somewhat great rescuing plan will be revealed before the meeting of EU council on October 23. European council will make the decision concerning European banks recapitalization and of EFSF resources increase. Greece will possibly receive the next financial tranche in November, which is necessary for debt servicing for a total sum of EUR 8 billion (about $11 billion).

We believe these facts are short-term positive for European banks. By analyst of IC IFG CAPITAL Alexey Sidorov, within the absence of French and German leaders’ speeches of coordinated position concerning the key-questions, indices may correct down in close time affected by accumulated negative of rating actions against financial institutions and countries.

Furthermore, S&P agency decreased credit rating of the next French bank.

The long-term rating of largest French bank, BNP Paribas, was downgraded by 1 level – from AA to AA-.

Counting of banking losses from problem debt charging-off may continue. Worker of the Institute of International Finance announced that creditor losses will increase to 39% of net current bond worth. This is caused by the current market prices and worsening of quality of Greece risk profiles.

Following substantial information will be published today:

15:30 Manufacturing activity index of NY Empire State (the USA).

16:15 Industrial manufacture (the USA)

Asian indices are traded in green zone. Chinese SSEC, Japanese Nikkei, Korean KOSPI increased by 0,31%. 1,50%, 1,62% respectively. Pressure to the Chinese shares keeps rendering the trading confrontation with the USA.

Russian RTS index opened the day with growth following oil prices.

Positive external background was formed on the opening.

The Futures for UX – UX-12.11. Technical analysis.

On the 4-houred timeframe the price is below the Parabolic indicator. Stochastic and RSI formed the signs to buy. The trend is bearish.

On the quarter timeframe the price placed below the Parabolic indicator. Oscillators formed the sign to sell. The trend is bullish.

Analytical department of IC IFG CAPITAL forecasts Futures and Index increase by the end of trade session, if index breaks the resistance level of 1350 points.

www.ik.ifgcapital.com.ua

www.ifgcapital.com.ua



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