On Thursday 08.12.2011 Mario Draghi became the main pushing power of markets. Before the ECB meeting stock indicators were growing, external negative was ignored. As a result, ECB decreased the basic rate by 0,25% - to 1%. Regulator will also render credits to banks termed 3 years, will mitigate demands to credit guarantee. Claim of Head of Central Bank that he is still against the aggressive purchase of Euro-region bonds became the reason for massive sales.
Quotations fall was shown in the USA too, despite positive labor statistics.
Domestic market successfully resisted external negative. The majority if shares of UX index basket were traded in the green zone. Trade activity on the market of applications increased. Shares of Stirol (+2,42%) showed good dynamics within the information of new powers launching. Enterprise started the third ammonia producing aggregate and increased the load of power supply to 100%.
Morning news is negative. European banking supervision department made the results of stress-tests of European banks public. 31 out of 91 financial institutions did not take the examination. We remind you, in July 8 out of 90 banks of EU lost the test. By EBA estimation, regional banks will need to draw EUR114,7 billion ($152,7 billion) as additional capital, which is EUR8 billion more than forecasted in October. Analysts expected 5-15 banks not to pass European stress-tests. Herewith, no sensational results were expected.
By analyst of IC IFG CAPITAL, Alexey Sidorov, the most important bearish news is that EU leaders could not elaborate reforms in EU yet. Herewith, during the preliminary informal discussions, German representatives denied again the range of anti-crisis measures, including Euro-regional bonds emission and rendering to ESM the banking status.
Following substantial statistics will be published today:
15:30 Trade balance (the USA)
16:55 Consumer sentiment index of Michigan University (the USA)
Asian stock indices demonstrate the downgrading dynamics. Chinese SSEC, Japanese Nikkei, Korean KOSPI lost by 0,62 %, 1,48%, 1,97 % respectively. Investors took the different statistics from China negatively, retail sales increased by 17,3% in November against 16,9% expected and +17,2% previously.
Industrial manufacturing increased by 12,4% in November, against +12,8% expected and +13,2% previously. Consumer price index decreased by 0,2% in November, against -0,1% expected and +0,1% previously. Investments to realty decreased more than expected. Positive Japan GDP did not change the general picture. GDP, accordingly to preliminary information, increased by 1,4% in 3rd quarter, against +1,3% expected and +1,5% previously. BSI conditions for large manufacture unexpectedly worsened in November. This indicator was expected to improve.
EUR-USD exchange rate and Brent oil price decrease.
Russian RTS index is falling.
Negative external background was formed on the opening.
The Futures for UX – UX-12.11. Technical analysis.
On the 4-houred timeframe the price is below the Parabolic indicator. Stochastic, RSI and MACD formed the signs to sell. The trend is bullish.
On the quarter timeframe the price placed above the Parabolic indicator. Oscillators do not give the univocal signs. The trend is bearish.
Analytical department of IC IFG CAPITAL forecasts index and futures decrease by the results of the trade session within the pessimistic inflow due to EU summit results.
IC IFG CAPITAL, LLC
Alexey Sidorov
ik.ifgcapital.com.ua
www.ifgcapital.com.ua
