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Analytics and Market news

Monday, 19 December 2011

European macroeconomic risks grow

IC IFG CAPITAL, Alexey Sidorov

UX index closed the week with no certain dynamics within the low trade activity and absence of important events. European indices resisted negative within the news of support program of Italy’s Government and yields of 10-year Italian bonds decrease. But in the end of Friday bears won due to negative outlook of S&P rating agency concerning the situation in EU developed countries. Five largest countries of Euro-region, net-exporters, will face the more significant decrease of GDP in 2012 against the peripheral countries being net importers, was admitted in the claim of agency. Stock indices growth dominated in the USA within the Congress approved the intermediate budget which allows financing of the government till the end of 2012 financial year. Weakness of American financial sector prevented from the quicker growth – by different estimations, banks will fire up to 150 thousand workers, in addition to 230 thousand who were dismissed this year.

The majority of shares of UX index basket were traded in the green zone.

Among the internal drivers, it is worth to admit electric energy consumption (gross) growth by 2.7% in Ukraine for 11 months of 2011 and increase of electric energy production by 3.9%.

As a result – shares of Centerenergo showed growth (+0.61%).

By analyst of IC IFG CAPITAL Alexey Sidorov, investors will play Belgium’s credit rating decrease today. This indicator in local and foreign currencies was downgraded by Moody’s rating agency by 2 positions – from AA1 to AA3 with negative outlook.

Asian stock indices decrease. Chinese SSEC, Japanese Nikkei, Korean KOSPI lost by 0.65 %, 1.26%, 3.43 % respectively.

EUR-USD exchange rate and Brent oil price decrease.

Russian RTS index opened the day in the red zone.

Negative external background was formed on the opening.

The Futures for UX – UX-3.12. Technical analysis.

On the 4-houred timeframe the price is below the Parabolic indicator. Oscillators are in the zone of reselling. The trend is bearish.

On the quarter timeframe the price placed below the Parabolic indicator. Oscillators do not give the univocal signs. The trend is bearish.

Analytical department of IC IFG CAPITAL forecasts index and futures decrease by the results of the trade session.

IC IFG CAPITAL, LLC
Alexey Sidorov

ik.ifgcapital.com.ua
www.ifgcapital.com.ua



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