On Tuesday the majority of shares of UX index basket were traded in the green zone. Trade activity on the market of applications increased. Composition of external and internal positive factors forwarded UX index to the positive territory. Banking liquid shares looked better than market within the information of net loss decrease by 45% of Ukrainian banking system during 11 months 2011 against the same period 2010. It is worth to admit that UX index looked much worse than the USA, Russian, European stock indicators which had a confident growth within the positive German business and consumer climate statistics and signs of animation of the USA housing market. Business sentiment index in Germany, which is estimated by Ifo research institute in December 2011, increased against the previous month and totaled 107.2 points. Analysts forecasted 106 points. Previous figure was 106.6 points. Current situation index totaled 116.7 points in December 2011 against 116 points forecasted and index of expectations – 98.4 points against 97 expected. Gfk consumer climate index did not change in January. This figure was expected to fall. Quantity of houses, construction of which started in November 2011 increased by 9.3% against the previous month and totaled 685 thousands house, which makes the maximal annual figure since April 2010. Quantity of housing construction permits increased by 5.7% in November – to 681 thousands annually, against +1.4% - to 635 thousand expected.
Another global indices growth driver became the successful placement of Spanish bills. More than planned was sold, yield decreased against the previous auction. Despite it brought the optimism splash to the stock markets, the influence of short-term securities should not be overestimated. Banks which received IMF credits with low interest are main investors. Long-term obligation will dubiously have the same popularity.
Quotations will be affected today by following events:
Fitch rating agency decreased rating of the largest Italian bank UniCredit SpA and put credit ratings of 4 French and 8 Spanish banks to the list of reconsideration with possible downgrade. Ratings of Bank of America, Barclays PLC, BNP Paribas, Credit Suisse AG, Deutsche Bank AG, The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc are also downgraded.
American Congress, headed by Republicans, did not support the bill of 2-months prolongation of tax benefits for salary and rendering the range of donations, previously approved by overwhelming majority of voices in Senate.
By analyst of IC IFG CAPITAL, Alexey Sidorov, these negative news will have the limited influence because ECB auction is expected today on rendering the unlimited quantity of 3-year credits to increase banking liquidity. Expectation of rapid liquidity growth will support quotations.
Following statistics will be published today:
17:00 Housing sales on the secondary market (the USA)
Asian stock indices majorly grow within the European positive. Japanese Nikkei, Korean KOSPI increased by 1.48%, 3.08% respectively. Negative statistics are ignored yet. Japanese export decreased by 4.5% in November, against -4.0% expected and -3.7% previously. Negative trading balance totaled JPY684.7 billion in November, against -273.8 billion previous month.
Chinese SSEC lost 1.12% within the information of direct foreign investments volume decrease. This figure decreased in annual estimation in November (for the first time since November 2009) by 9.8% against +8.8% in October.
EUR-USD exchange rate and Brent oil price grow.
Russian RTS index opened the day on the positive territory.
Positive external background was formed on the opening.
The Futures for UX – UX-3.12. Technical analysis.
On the 4-houred timeframe the price is below the Parabolic indicator. Oscillators do not give the univocal signs. The trend is bearish.
On the quarter timeframe the price placed above the Parabolic indicator. Stochastic, RSI and MACD formed the signs to sell. The trend is bullish.
Analytical department of IC IFG CAPITAL forecasts index and futures increase by the results of the trade session, within the European optimism caused by ECB actions.
IC IFG CAPITAL, LLC
Alexey Sidorov
ik.ifgcapital.com.ua
www.ifgcapital.com.ua
