On Wednesday 18.01.2012 the majority of shares of UX index basket was traded on the positive territory. Trade activity on the market of applications slightly decreased. In general, UX index repeated the lateral trend on European stocks, which was formed by actions of different factors. On one hand, favorable placement of Portugal sovereign debt securities and positive statistics from the USA. On the other hand, German government decreased the outlook for economy growth for 2012 and there was a delay of tension escalation risk on Greece matter. We remind you that Portugal placed bills of 3 emissions for the total sum of EUR2.5 billion, crediting worth of the country decreased, high demand was shown.
By the estimations of German Economy Ministry, the GDP of the country will increase in 2012 by 0.7%. The previous forecast, published in October, previewed the growth by 1%.
The USA stock indicators showed the confident growth. Investors positively took macro indicators and Goldman Sachs report.
American bank decreased the net profit in the 4th quarter 2011 by 58% - to $1.01 billion or $1.84 per share, against $3.79 per share the same period year ago. Analysts forecasted more weak quarter profits of Goldman Sachs – at level of $1.23 per share.
PPI an d Core PPI showed the different dynamics, which can be taken neutrally in general. Industrial manufacture in the USA increased in December by 0.4%, against +0.5% expected. The net inflow of foreign capital in November exceeded expectations.
Among the events which will influence to the investors behavior, it is worth to note the negotiations of Greece government and holders of bonds concerning the debt restructuring and negotiations of EU and IMF concerning the next financial tranche rendering. By the preliminary information, Greece is close to approve the deal on debt restructuring with private creditors, herewith the discarding will reach around 68%. Inspection to Greece was planned for today to negotiate on the second urgent help program. By analyst of IC IFG CAPITAL Alexey Sidorov, in case of the next delay in negotiations the Greece topic will come to the first place, because the country is expecting the uncontrolled default without the next subventions.
Positive external background was formed on the opening. But the situation is unstable, technical correction is possible on EUR-USD pair.
Forward market analysis. Put/Call Ratio decreased to 4-day minimum and is 0.42. The signal is bullish.
The Futures for UX – UX-3.12. Technical analysis.
On the 4-houred timeframe the price placed below the Parabolic indicator. Indicators formed the signs to buy. The trend is bearish.
On the quarter timeframe the price placed above the Parabolic indicator. Indicators dynamics is neutral. The trend is lateral.
Analytical department of IC IFG CAPITAL forecasts index and futures decrease by the results of the trade session, due to the possible technical correction on the evening markets in second half of the day and weakness of domestic market.
IC IFG CAPITAL, LLC
Alexey Sidorov
ik.ifgcapital.com.ua
www.ifgcapital.com.ua
