Domestic market opened the week
with the correctional growth on the majority of liquid shares. External reasons
were first of all the next successful meeting on amendments to budget of Greece
Parliament, which were pointed to decrease deficit, demanded by creditors.
Secondly, reasons were in the successful placement of short-term bonds of Italy
and France. Yields majorly decreased within the high demand.
The majority of shares of UX
index basket were traded in the green zone. Trade activity decreased
significantly on the market of applications. Liquid shares of wagon-builders
and energy-generating companies looked better than market. In first case,
market overestimated the consequences of certificate validity termination for
lateral frames production by Kremenchug Steel Factory, which caused a range of
problems on the Russian market for wagon builders.
Investors estimate this event as
temporary. Demand drop in Russia may be partly compensated in current year within
the internal demand from Ukrzaliznytsia connected to its reorganization and
accelerating wear off of car fleet.
Herewith, on Friday Kryukov Wagon
Building Plant published favorable manufacturing showings in January 2012
(emission of freight wagons +23.8% annually).
By analyst of IC IFG CAPITAL
Alexey Sidorov, shares of KVBZ will look better than market in nearest days.
In case of energy-generators
sales of governmental packages are still the growth drivers in June.
The situation in Asia worsens and
downgrading of credit ratings for 6 European countries (among them Italy, Spain
and Portugal) by Moody’s rating agency are the bearish factors. France and
Great Britain are warned of possible decrease of ratings. Chinese SSEC is
traded on the negative territory due to debt problems of provinces. The total
debt of provinces and cities of China to local banks is $1,7 trillion. This
makes the 6th part of GDP. Government will force banks to prolong
the terms of clearing off by 4 years to avoid local defaults. In Japan pressure
to the quotations is rendered by weak GDP information and manufacturing
production growth in December. The growth slowed down more than expected. Only
the intervention of Japanese Central Bank which widened the quantity mitigation
scale, guided Nikkei to the positive territory.
Negative external
background was formed on the opening.
Forward market
analysis. Put/Call Ratio showed the minimal value during
22 days and reached 0.19 points. The sign is bearish.
The Futures for UX –
UX-3.12. Technical analysis.
On the 4-houred timeframe the
price placed below the Parabolic indicator. Oscillators do not give the
univocal signs. The trend is bearish.
On the quarter timeframe the
price placed above the Parabolic indicator. Stochastic and RSI are close to
their minimal values. The trend is lateral.
Analytical department
of IC IFG CAPITAL forecasts index and futures decrease by the end of trade
session.
IC IFG CAPITAL, LLC
Alexey Sidorov
ik.ifgcapital.com.ua
www.ifgcapital.com.ua
